Image via WikipediaRudy Gay was one of the most celebrated members of the
2006 NBA Draft class, but he fell to eighth overall and was traded by the Rockets to Memphis in a deal for
Shane Battier.
He had a true breakout season in 07-08, his second in the NBA, but he has since struggled to improve in any meaningful way.
We knew Gay would be a beneficiary of being a restricted
free agent this summer by piggy-backing off the heralded true max players in
LeBron James,
Dwyane Wade,
Chris Bosh, etc., but few could predict his max contract would come from his incumbent team on the first day of free agency.
The strategy when dealing with your own RFAs is to stall and threaten to match anything, which handcuffs the player and his agent. It is a strategy that worked a few summers ago for the Hawks with Josh Smith and also last season with David Lee and the Knicks.
There is no conceivable benefit for the Grizzlies to offer a full max to Gay unless he was a special circumstances player such as
Kevin Durant or even his draft classmate Brandon Roy.
Over the life of the extension, Gay will make $25M more than
Rajon Rondo, who agreed to an extension with the Celtics several months ago before ever hitting the open market.
He is uber-athletic and won't turn 24 until August, meaning he has room to improve still and the Grizzlies have bought his entire prime with a few seasons to spare.
Gay has improved his mid-range jumper substantially since coming into the NBA, as well as his defense. On good nights, he looks like an All-Star but he still struggles with his consistency.
His PER of 16.3 ranks him about 10th amongst NBA small forwards and he's probably a little better than that. The position is fairly weak right now once you get past the holy trinity of LeBron James, Kevin Durant and
Carmelo Anthony. I would put Danny Granger ahead of him as well and probably Gerald Wallace, and while Nicolas Batum might surpass him, that's a big question mark.
Paul Pierce is beyond his prime obviously and I don't think Luol Deng is as good as him and is trending downwards. At the very worst, Gay is a top-8 small forward right now.
There are certain teams where Gay might be worth an $80M contract, an up-tempo team with a legitimate alpha scorer, but it is hard to see how he can be worth that much to Memphis. He is easily at his best offensively in transition, where he can use his athleticism and strong all-around game.
Max players should be All-Stars every single season and Rudy Gay is not one of those players.
Grade for Grizzlies: C-
There was an excellent chance that Gay would end up signing a max contract this summer, so credit must be given to Jeff Austin and Octagon for making it happen so swiftly.
In a few months, and particularly after the new CBA, this deal may look absolutely dreadful and he probably won't finish the contract in Memphis.
Grade for Rudy Gay: B+
http://grizzlies.realgm.com/articles/55/20100702/grading_the_deal_grizzlies_max_out_rudy_gay/
