Saturday, March 31, 2012

NBA News 2012: Beating Kentucky

LOUISVILLE, KY - MARCH 15:  Anthony Davis #23 ...LOUISVILLE, KY - MARCH 15: Anthony Davis #23 and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist #14 of the Kentucky Wildcats position themselves for a rebound in the first half against Vinny Zollo #41 of the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers during the second round of the 2012 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at KFC YUM! Center on March 15, 2012 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Image credit: Getty Images via @daylife)
Kentucky has almost no defensive holes, and there’s no combination of players Louisville, Ohio State or Kansas can put on the floor that would give the Wildcats any matchup problems.

They have a 6’9, 245 power forward (Terrence Jones) who can defend any forward in the country and a 6’7 230 swingman (Michael Kidd-Gilchrist) who can defend any perimeter player. They can stick a 6’8, 235 combo forward (Darius Miller) or a 6’4, 210 combo guard (Doron Lamb) on the other team’s third, fourth or fifth option. Their worst athlete is their 6’2, 190 McDonald’s All-American PG (Marquis Teague).

Looming behind some combination of those five future NBA players is one of the most formidable shot-blockers in recent memory, an impossibly long 6’10, 220 forward who has the wingspan of Yao Ming and the foot-speed of a guard. Anthony Davis plays on an entirely different plane than nearly anyone else in the country. He’s the ultimate safety net, literally towering over the court.

On the off chance a college guard can beat the first Kentucky defender off the dribble, they end up in a vast forest of impenetrable limbs moving at impossibly fast speeds. In their Elite Eight victory over Baylor, the only way “the point guard” duo of Pierre Jackson and AJ Walton, who combined for five turnovers and eight personal fouls, were scoring in the half-court was through wildly hosting up pull-up 3-pointers. The two combined to shoot 9-23 from the field and 1-8 from deep.

However, poetically enough, Kentucky’s greatest strength is also their Achilles heel. While Davis’ historically unique combination of length and foot-speed makes him a devastating perimeter defender, that same lack of bulk leaves him vulnerable at the point of attack.

The common theme in their tough games was a 6’10+ center too big for Jones and too strong for Davis. Indiana’s Cody Zeller (6’11 230) was able to get Davis into foul trouble in both their match-ups while UNC had his brother Tyler (7’0 250). Tennessee had Jarnell Stokes, an athletic and fundamentally sound big man (6’9 260) who will end up being a better pro than either Thomas Robinson or Jared Sullinger, and Vanderbilt had Festus Ezeli (6’11 255).

Of course, there aren’t many players with that size in the world, much less in college basketball. When Kendall Marshall went down in the second round, effectively eliminating UNC, the only team in the field of 68 who can match up with Kentucky at every position, it removed the Wildcats’ biggest roadblock on their path to a national championship.

Even the most formidable offensive team will have nights where their jumper isn’t falling, while a zone team is always vulnerable to a hot-shooting opponent. A team stocked with NBA athletes at every position who play aggressive man-to-man defense isn’t going to have an off night.

Kentucky has multiple defensive answers for the top players on Louisville, Ohio State and Kansas. On the other end of the floor, none of those teams have defensive answers for all of Kentucky’s weapons. When the ball is tipped on Saturday night, that’s what is ultimately going to matter, not any type of beef between the coaching staffs or the fan bases.


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Sunday, March 18, 2012

NBA News 2012: The Skyrocketing Value Of Draft Picks

LOS ANGELES, CA - JANUARY 06:  Kobe Bryant #24...LOS ANGELES, CA - JANUARY 06: Kobe Bryant #24 of the Los Angeles Lakers shoots over Klay Thompson #11 of the Golden State Warriors at Staples Center on January 6, 2012 in Los Angeles, California. The Lakers won 97-90. (Image credit: Getty Images via @daylife)
At the NBA trade deadline this season, late first-round picks were at a premium.

The Houston Rockets dealt Jordan Hill, an athletic 6’10, 245, 24-year-old big man with a 15.4 PER, for a first-round pick from the Los Angeles Lakers, assuming the cost of buying out Derek Fisher’s $3.4 million player option next season in the process.

The Cleveland Cavaliers dealt Ramon Sessions, a legit NBA starter who is only 25-years-old, for the Lakers’ other first-round pick, assuming the cost of Luke Walton’s $6.1 million salary in 2013

The most eyebrow-raising move of all was the Golden State Warriors essentially paying $11.4 million dollars for the San Antonio Spurs' first-round pick. Stephen Jackson’s contract expires after 2013 while Richard Jefferson will almost certainly pick up his player option for the 2013-14 season.

In a league that typically scoffs at the value of these picks, which have usually been available for $3 million in cash, it’s fair to wonder what these teams are thinking. However, two things, both the result of the lockout, are different in 2012: the heightened luxury tax penalties in the new CBA have increased the value of first-rounders’ cost-controlled salaries while the uncertainty surrounding the 2011-12 season helped keep many of college basketball’s top players in school an extra season.

Kentucky and North Carolina, the two favorites in the NCAA Tournament, have at least five players who would have been first-round picks last year: Harrison Barnes, Tyler Zeller, John Henson, Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb. At least five more collegiate players -- Jared Sullinger (Ohio State), Jeremy Lamb (UConn), Perry Jones III (Baylor), Jeffrey Taylor and Festus Ezeli (Vanderbilt) -- would have been first-round picks in 2011, one of the weakest drafts in recent memory.


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